Final Oscar Predictions 2016

Oscars 2015

Another year, another Oscars. The 88th Academy Awards are just a day away and it’s a wide open race this spring for Best Picture. The guild awards have spoken… and they all disagree. With the PGAs going to The Big Short, the DGAs to The Revenant, and the SAGs to Spotlight, there’s a good chance many prognosticators this year will be dead wrong in their predictions. But with a major win at the WGAs, I think The Big Short will eventually wrench the top prize from The Revenant, which is a technically impressive film, but ultimately too divisive for audiences. McKay’s film, on the other hand, is informative, accessible, and fun (well, as fun as any film about the 2008 financial crisis could be.) And unlike recent politically-themed winners, not instantly forgettable. (I’m looking at you, Argo.)

Expect the acting wins to remain fairly static – Larson and DiCaprio will ride it home, Stallone has already warmed too many hearts as this cultural icon, and Vikander will capitalize on category manipulation and the Academy’s established love for Long-Suffering Wives.  They’ll throw a few “craft” category bones to Mad Max: Fury Road, but pepper The Revenant in the technical fields. And don’t forget they love the loudest voices: Lady Gaga, Morricone, and Amy will get love for being visible in the zeitgeist right now. (Not that they don’t deserve it.)

Without further ado, my 2016 Oscar picks:

Best Picture 

Will Win: The Big Short
Might Upset: The Revenant 
Should Have Been Nominated: Straight Outta Compton

Best Director

Will Win: Alejandro Iñárritu (The Revenant)
Might Upset: Adam McKay (The Big Short)
Should Have Been Nominated: Ridley Scott (The Martian)

Best Actor 

Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
Might Upset: Bryan Cranston (Trumbo)
Should Have Been Nominated: Jacob Tremblay (Room)

Best Actress

Will Win: Brie Larson (Room)
Might Upset: Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)
Should Have Been Nominated: Charlize Theron (Mad Max: Fury Road)

Best Supporting Actor  

Will Win: Sylvester Stallone (Creed)
Might Upset: Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
Should Have Been Nominated: Paul Dano (Love & Mercy)

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
Might Upset: Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)
Should Have Been Nominated: Alicia Vikander (Ex Machina)

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win: Spotlight
Might Upset: Inside Out
Should Have Been Nominated: Trainwreck

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: The Big Short 
Might Upset: Room
Should Have Been Nominated: The Diary of a Teenage Girl

Best Animated Feature Film:

Will Win: Inside Out
Might Upset: Anomalisa
Should Have Been Nominated: The Good Dinosaur

Best Foreign Language Film:

Will Win: Son of Saul (Hungary)
Might Upset: Mustang (France)
Should Have Been Nominated: Labyrinth of Lies (Germany)

Best Documentary – Feature:

Will Win: Amy 
Might Upset: The Look of Silence 
Should Have Been Nominated: The Wolfpack


Best Animated Short Film: Sanjay’s Super Team
Best CinematographyThe Revenant
Best Costume Design: The Danish Girl 
Best Documentary – Short Subject: Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah 
Best Film Editing: The Big Short
Best Live Action Short Film: Stutterer
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Mad Max Fury Road
Best Original Score: The Hateful Eight
Best Original Song: “Til It Happens To You” (The Hunting Ground)
Best Production Design: Mad Max: Fury Road 
Best Sound Editing: The Revenant
Best Sound Mixing: The Revenant
Best Visual Effects: The Revenant


Most Enjoyable Movies of 2015
Appropriate Behavior
What We Do in the Shadows
Maps to the Stars
It Follows
Far From the Madding Crowd
Going Clear
52 Tuesdays
I’ll See You in My Dreams
Ex Machina
I Am Big Bird
Love & Mercy
Mad Max: Fury Road
Inside Out
Soaked in Bleach
The Wolfpack
Michelle Darnell
The Diary of a Teenage Girl
The End of the Tour
Straight Outta Compton
The Danish Girl
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Big Short
The Revenant

Most Disappointing Movies of 2015

Clouds of Sils Maria
Me and Earl and the Dying Girl
Learning to Drive
The Falling
Goodnight Mommy
The Martian
The Hateful Eight
Steve Jobs

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